AMNESTY- THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM.

It’s been exactly six (6) weeks since the Nigerian government’s amnesty program for militants was kick-started. That means two (2) more weeks left before the expiration of the offer and a lot done already to effectively access the successes of the initiative so far or the lack thereof. To be candid, the visible effects of the amnesty offer have been mostly positive. Some key militants have dropped their arms and embraced the process, among them General Boyloaf, Soboma George and Young shall grow. According to the government, around 5000 militants have taken advantage of the amnesty program, surrendering more than 100,000 rounds of ammunition and hundreds of weapons. Nigeria is once again meeting its OPEC quota, not to mention the much needed revenue in-flow. Also, there has hardly been any incident of kidnappings and the usual blowing of pipelines and other oil and gas facilities has receded remarkably. The most notable of the militant groups, MEND, unilaterally declared a cease fire even though it (MEND) has not formally accepted the government’s offer. There really has been calm, but with 14 days to the close of the offer window it feels like it’s just a CALM BEFORE THE STORM.

“NOBODY IS IN THE CAMP AGAIN. EVERYBODY IS IN THE COMMUNITY WAITING FOR REHABILITATION.” Those were the words of the second in command to ex-militant leader Young shall grow on AIT’s FOCUS NIGERIA. And he is right. What normally should happen after a package like this is rehabilitation and reintegration into the society. It is not for nothing that rehabilitation of criminal offenders is a huge deal in many nations; according to daily Texan online, more than 50 percent of all crimes are committed by re-offenders and only 35 percent of inmates do not make their way back to prison upon their release in America. For most serious offenders, the reason why they do not return to jail is that the time spent in incarceration was spent productively in changing vital aspects of their personality and in education. Thus, the way the Nigerian government handles the rehabilitation and reintegration stage of the amnesty program would determine if the successes recorded so far have come to stay or if we shall yet return to the pre-amnesty days. Let us not be deceived, a lot of arms are still out there, some belonging to those who have supposedly dropped their guns. I don’t believe that the few arms collected so far have been all that was used to unleash the terror the past. The ex-militants have not been totally honest and for good reason too- our government lacks integrity, just ask the unions like NLC and ASUU which have entered into negotiations with them in the past. As a rule of thumb, our government mostly says what they don’t mean and mean what they never say. So the militants are playing fair game in their skepticism of the government. But Yaradua’s government has a window of opportunity to prove that it is sincere by its handling of the rehabilitation. The situation now where already some ex-militants are protesting on the streets over the government’s failure to keep its own side of the bargain is dangerous.

The militants should not be treated like refugees, remember that most are used to easy cash since they realized the power of the muzzle. The present rehabilitation camps- at least the ones I have seen- are an eye-sore with over packed hostels and over grown weeds. As usual the government approach is steeped in confusion. There already is some finger pointing between the Bayelsa state government led by the governor, Timipre Sylva and the federal government led by Mr. Timi Alaibe who is Yaradua’s special adviser on Niger Delta issues as to who did what and who should be doing what. And of course there is the usual dearth of ideas. Mr. Alaibe says the government will engage the militants in focus group discussions and one-on-one discussions as to their aspirations and will do for them whatever they want. According to him, “If your aspiration is to go abroad on a scholarship, the federal government will grant you a scholarship.” Really? Such grand statements amount to placing the cart before the horse and can only come from an ignorant government. We seem to forget that some of these boys have psychological issues now as a result of their long romance with violence, some are drug addicts or sex addicts and yet nothing is being mentioned about rehabilitation counseling and psychological assessments to test for mental or physical disabilities. What programs are being planned to teach them values and principles before you load them on the next flight abroad and then expect that they would simply embrace honest work and do you proud.

Mr. Alaibe also mentioned that the government would ask the communities about what their aspirations are and then would meet those aspirations. Note that he said this in a place where there is no access road to that community from the state capital; a place where the militant whose surrender prompted Mr. Alaibe’s visit is the highest employer of labor. What other aspirations could such a community possibly have than the obvious? One of the road cleaners in the employ of this ex-militant put it succinctly, “You want our children to drop their guns, so now you must come and take care of us.” By now, the tractors should have begun to move in to prove government’s good faith and perhaps cause the more pessimistic of the militants to reconsider their hard line stance. But the tractors are in Abuja- with Mr. President- sick from idleness. The truth remains that no matter how many ex-militants you send abroad, as long as the root causes of the militancy remain unattended to, it’s only a matter of time before more bitter youths fill the vacuum they leave. As long as the government remains on strike, there will be more jobless undergraduates to recruit. Yaradua’s government has never been known to seize the initiative or even ride on the crest of a momentum. But it doesn’t take a hero to see and perform some of the immediate and strategic things that should and must be done in order to ensure that the meteorologists are proven wrong this time and the present calm brings not turbulent storms but ushers in even more calm.